Despite the above commentary, I am a bit worried about all the write downs coming out of the financial sector. The major banks are starting to pull back on credit...first in the mortgage market, and I think pretty soon in the consumer credit market. That will start to constrain spending. I expect that sub prime write downs will get worse in the first 2 quarters of next year. Just the thought of these write downs caused E*Trade to almost be pulled under despite having a solid balance sheet. Citibank, BofA, and Wachovia have all been hit hard and are starting to lay people off (It's not going to be pretty in Uptown Charlotte or in lower Manhattan). The bigger issue I see here are all the hedge fund managers (who pay negligible taxes) manipulating the market. They are setting up short-sells in a very predictable way and riding the market down almost on cue. It's disgusting. The ability for so few who don't have the same type of responsibility as institutional investors disturbs me. (posted at skewz.com)
GarandFan
· 2 years ago
Poor MSM, vested in defeat in Iraq, constantly telling everyone who will listen that the economy has been in the toilet for the last 6 years. Isn't anyone listening?
chaking
· 2 years ago
Maybe we had a better showing because all the Canadians came down here to shop on the cheap for once!! I mean, my whole life the U.S. dollar has been the strongest in North America, now that the US dollar is so weak, maybe the canadians are just happy to take advantage? But yeah, I too think the economy is absolutely perfect since we had a lot of people shopping on the day after thanksgiving!
Ray_in_MPLS
· 2 years ago
Economic Gloom and Doom. That's pretty much all I've heard over the years.
Just about every year, especially around election time, I hear that the economy is in the toilet and will only get worse. Just about every year, especially just before the holiday shopping season, I hear that consumer spending is decreasing and that this will have a huge, negative effect on our economy. And just about every year the American consumer (failing to hear that they have reduced spending and that the economy is contracting, I guess) prove the "experts" wrong and spend a record amount of money to buy a record amount of products. When will the "experts" learn that one should never underestimate the power of the American consumer?
docjim505
· 2 years ago
Ditto Ray_in_MPLS. Read all the gloomy reports and predictions about how the price of fuel was going to crimp people's spending for the holidays and that this year's post-Thanksgiving retail market would suffer as recession looms on the horizon. Then I had to fight my way through the crowds at the local mall on Friday...
Are there potential problems with the economy? Sure: we can't expect the economy to expand at high rates forever. Eventually, the cycle always returns to low growth or recession, though good fiscal policy can soften the blow of an economic downturn. But much is out of the control of the government (or bloody well should be); viper123456 raises good points about the subprime market and the truly stupid decisions banks made to lend money to high-risk customers. O' course, the usual suspects in DC are talking about a government bail-out, which will force John Q. Taxpayer to pay for the bad decisions made by banks as well as moronic customers who never stopped to consider whether they really COULD afford a $200k mortgage on a $25k salary.
Another thing the government can't really control is consumer confidence, and as Cap'n Ed points out, the MSM is doing its level best to torpedo that... just in time for elections.
olddeadmeat
· 2 years ago
docjim, you know how I hate to ever disagree with anyone on this board, but the MSM is waaaaaay behind the curve on what is coming. We are just starting on the downslope towards a recession. Here's why: Enormously low interest rates fueled a bubble on real estate prices, which consumers then borrowed against to fund consumer spending. That is all grinding to a halt. The Black Friday stats cited mean little in terms of potential for continued growth - consumers spent less per person on average this Black Friday than last year, and retailers were much more aggressive on trying to pull consumers in their stores - cutting their margins. All of that means our growth from last year was funding by borrowing against an assumption of future growth. It's a national margin call, gentlemen. Last month, I got into extended discussions with many on this blog re: the stock market, and when the Dow was at 13,600, I said it would see 12,000 before it saw 15,000. Right now it's between 12,900 and 13,000. I'll even go a little out on a limb with a few more predictions: Look for CountryWide to file bankruptcy within 4 months if the credit rating agencies don't cut its rating. If they do, CountryWide goes under before the new year. We'll see a rally thru the end of year (Christmas optimism) but the Dow goes under 12, 000 by January 31. At least one major investment bank goes under next year. Citigroup looks like the early lead for this, but there are some dark horses out there. Recession by summer. Home prices crater by at least another 10 percent by July, in some areas more likely 20-25 percent. Worldwide economic recession, when we catch pneumonia, the rest of the world catches AIDS. Look for China to be a canary in the mine here, they are running way too hot and Beijing knows it. Buckle your seat belts, strap in, and hang onto your gold. It's gonna be a wild ride.
olddeadmeat
· 2 years ago
Oops, my bad, the Dow slipped just a little bit more since lunch - to under 12, 750. Doesn't look like the market feels too good about Black Friday, eh?
docjim505
· 2 years ago
ODM,
I don't say that we're not in for some bad times. As I wrote earlier, the business cycle is, well, cyclical. The economy can't expand forever.
However, having the MSM out every day shouting gloom 'n' doom certainly doesn't help, and may make things a bit worse.
Which is exactly what I think they're playing at.
Lightwave
· 2 years ago
The news keeps talking about how the subprime "debacle" is going to cost this country $400 billion dollars plus and that my state of Ohio is the "foreclosure capital of the US". But here in Cincinnati ground has just been broken on the Banks, a major new downtown development project. Cincinnati area banks (Fifth Third, PNG, National City) are seeing their stocks going back up.
Again, if the economy really is doing that bad, and the weak dollar is truly a disaster for this country, the first real signs that the consumer was nervous would have been in Black Friday shopping. Instead it was up almost 10% from last year.
As much as the media wants 2008 to be a referendum about Bush, he has nothing to do with it. He's gone in 2008, an ex-President. But come 2009 we'll still be in Iraq. The question is how serious are we about finishing the job and winning now that we're on the right track in the country?
unclesmrgol
· 2 years ago
I guess I should buttress the position in this article by actually going out to shop. But I did that last year (one of the bad years, supposedly), and got stuck at 4AM at the end of the line going nearly all the way around the block at Best Buy. No, I didn't get the item I wanted, and I became that bane of merchants, the queue balker (an easy decision, when the checkout line at the time I entered was already insanely long).
So explain to me why, this year, I should have joined a line more than 10 percent longer at an even earlier time to get the same result?
/sarcasm
I'll just do my shopping in early December, when the lines are sane. And, judging from last year's results, the merchants mustn't have done too bad then either.
GarandFan
· 2 years ago
I've got several favoite web sites to shop from. Only reason I go to the mall is to laugh!
DayTrader
· 2 years ago
The has got to be a pre approved certified democrat strategic plan.
All the usual suspects on the left have been poking this puppy real hard for the last 5 or 6 months and amazingly all of them with almost exact talking points.
NoDonkey
· 2 years ago
We're also constantly being told that the price of gas is reducing families to starvation - and in the next moment, they tell us that Thanksgiving traffic is the worst ever and to stay off of the roads.
Better to not get stuck behind those late model, "fuel-efficient", luxury SUVs on the roads.
Tell me again what exactly is the point of paying attention to anything the media says? Might as well watch cartoons, I'll be less ill-informed than I will be if I watch CNN.
March_Hare
· 2 years ago
Obviously, the "doom-and-gloom" folks in the MSM haven't tried to buy a Wii. I've been looking since ~before~ Black Friday (online only, I admit) and they are all sold out. Even the bundled packages, priced around $700.00.
The Economy can't be too bad if these pricey toys are already gone!
Otter
· 2 years ago
The dhims and the msm will continue to try to talk down the economy until they win the White House (IF). Then suddenly there will be plenty of stories as to how good things are going!
NoDonkey
· 2 years ago
And the homeless will disappear.
I read in the NY Times that the number of murders is the lowest since they've been counting (1963).
Can't be because all of the liberal "root causes of crime" nonsense is in the ash bin of history.
Teresa
· 2 years ago
Actually, other news reports say that while Friday was good -- fueled in large part by deep, deep discounts -- the rest of the weekend was not as good. I'd wait a bit before getting too excited about just Friday.
NoDonkey
· 2 years ago
Yes, that will give time for the DNC to pass on some lies and spin to the MSM.
Look for the bi-weekly Paul Krugman lunacy to discount it as well.
These lefties are so boringly predictable that it's hardly worth discussing anymore.
docjim505
· 2 years ago
al-AP via DCNN: The nation's retailers had a robust start to the holiday shopping season, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that tracks sales at retail outlets across the country.
Women, children and minorities hardest hit, eh?
Texnav77
· 2 years ago
Seems true enough..The Fort Worth Star Telegram ran a three page "horror" story on mortgages and forecloser in Section A and a one-quarter colmn on the "good" sale day on page A-18 today. No ill meaning intended, I'm sure.
Teresa
· 2 years ago
Hate to burst your bubble, but the latest figures show that buyers spent LESS on average this weekend than they did last year. And, even last year, Thanksgiving weekend with all the sales was good while the rest of the season sucked.
I'm glad that some of you here are doing well, but with rising gas prices and medical bills it will be a lean Christmas in our household this year. I've already had to tell our son to forget about getting a new Xbox 360 this Christmas.
Del_Dolemonte
· 2 years ago
"The latest figures" you quote-without a cite-no doubt were "reported" by the same mainstream media news sources that are the original topic of this thread.
As for your son and his precious Xbox 360, try and lower his expectations. I assume that by the price of said item that your son is accustomed to receiving Christmas gifts that cost $300 apiece. For many people in this country, that $300 is the same as a monthly house or car payment. Shouldn't the gift be something not based on monetary value or current popular culture cachet?
I came from a family that was definitely NOT poor, but even adjusted for inflation I never received a Christmas gift that pricey.
NoDonkey
· 2 years ago
I was thinking that too. I doubt my parents spent more than $30 on me a Christmas, much less $300 (adjusted for inflation).
And you know what? I was happy and grateful for everything I received.
If the worst problem someone has is they can't afford an overpriced gift for their kids, they are truly fortunate.
Math_Mage
· 2 years ago
Get a Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 with the five best games for it ever made, plus extra controllers. Cheaper and more fun.
NoDonkey
· 2 years ago
Tomorrow will be the biggest sales day ever for online retailing.
The National Retail Foundation expects that 72 million people will spend over $700 million.
Personally, there's nothing that could have got me into a store this past weekend. There's a lot of people like me who do all of their shopping online.
Dave_in_MA
· 2 years ago
Remember "It's the Economy, Stupid"? The MSM and their pet political party have a proven track record with this crap.
bayam
· 2 years ago
Well, the experts who are largely fueling stories in the media may yet be right.
This weekend accounts for about 5% of year-end holiday spending. It's still too early to say if this year will be good for retailers or not. It's certain that people feel less well off as the housing market has fallen apart. And as the dollar continues its decline, it's amazing that the prices of imported goods (think of everything from China) have continued to hold steady. The US is an import-crazed country, and dollar deflation will eventually lead to real price inflation. It's only a matter of time unless the dollar stabilizes or reverses course.
As for our policy of bankrolling a war by printing more dollars instead of raising taxes, Johnson did the same in Vietnam over 30 years ago. If you took an economics class in the 80's or 90's, you would have learned that most economics attributed those policies of budget irresponsibility to the inflationary pain experienced by Americans over the following decades. History does repeat itself, and we're foolish not to take the current economic imbalances more seriously.
Someone should be pushing the big red warning button.
jerry
· 2 years ago
Bayam:
The dollar crisis is more of a Euro crisis because the Europeans, who already have low growth or stagnant economies, are facing the loss of markets and a flood of US imports. It might surprise you that the US exports a wide range of industrial goods and services that are in direct competition with Europe. If the Euro remains high European countries will simply “outsource” their production of goods destined for the American market to the United States reducing employment in Europe and increasing it here. This will only exacerbate the differential growth rates between US and the EU. I agree that this is not stable and will eventually lead to a global economic crisis. The United States cannot sustain its own economic expansion indefinitely while the European economy spirals downward.
If you want to actually observe this phenomenon I suggest a quick trip to the US-Canada border on a Saturday afternoon. Shopping mall parking lots are filled with Canadian license plates while those on the other side of the border are empty of cars and the shops are devoid of customers. Eventually this will lead to more jobs for Americans and less for Canadians.
We have developed an international trade policy based on the assumption that all nations will pursue pro-growth policies. This assumption has proven to be incorrect because our European and Japanese trading partners for various reasons have not done this over a twenty year period. If Europe does not reverse its statist course then the world economy based upon open trade will collapse into a 1930’s era of protectionism and global depression. There is some hope that France under Sarkozy will take the lead in changing attitudes in Europe toward pro-growth policies. His Reagan-like face down of the French trade unions is a hopeful step in the right direction.
Here is a article in the Daily Telegraph (UK) on the reality of the Dollar-Euro Crisis:
I am hardly a proponent of doom and gloom, but I wouldn't get overly excited just yet. Black Friday is a phenomena that changes, evolves even, year to year. Twenty years ago, consumers were not generally familiar with the concept, and retailers were far more conservative in their marketing to embrace the day. This year, the retailers have pulled out all the stops and a lot of really excellent deals were available for early shoppers. How much the marketing and major sales impacted a change in gross sales vs. last year is hard to quantify, but it is a variable. Also, with average expenditures being lower than last year, it is difficult to assume too much.
I'm not trying to cast a pall on the happiness over the increase in Black Friday sales. But all economies have ups and downs, and I don't want conservatives to be uncritically cheerful and taking credit for development that they may have little influence on, thereby tying themselves to downturns that they are also unable to influence. Yes, the economy continues to trend upward and that is good news. But if you want to hitch your political wagon to an economic agenda, you might want to stick with things that the GOP is responsible for like child tax credits and other income tax reductions.
ThunderRun
· 2 years ago
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 11/26/2007 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...
always_right
· 2 years ago
This is similar to "predict" any (football) game based on the first possessions of each team. All views are possible, no way to tell until halfway through the 4th quarter. Even then, there might be some surprises in store.
Red
· 2 years ago
Think of this though...a lot of the goods being purchased are made over seas. Our dollar is depreciating rapidly, so far about 40%. So we get a statistic based on dollars..what does this mean? We are buying the same amount, (or less), of goods as last year but paying more for them. Therefore; more dollars spent, not more goods bought. What seems like prosperity isn't.
Kevin
· 2 years ago
Time will tell but exports are booming as we're on pace to set a world record $1.7 trillion in exports, and now maybe the consumer is booming through the holidays too. This may be the first time the U.S. has gone through a "recession" growing GDP at +4% every step of the way.
Red
· 2 years ago
You are basing your point on "dollars". Since the dollar is depreciating $1.7 trillion in exports is meaningless unless you times it by .60. Then it's not so much of a record.
paul
· 2 years ago
I have been watching the GAO and their gdp predictions since 90. They had an uncanny track record of being spot on when predicting fowrward looking gdp under Clinton. Never perfect in prediction, but if they missed high, they would also miss low-the average variance always fell on the number.
Enter W:
I have never seen a more complete decline in accuracy, occutr so quickly, and the number is consistently lower than actual outcome. To the avergae person, it means little, becuase they believe the difference between 3% gdp and 1.5% is 1.5%. IT's actually a difference of 50%. This kind of miss is excusable, but to miss consitently low would suggest some bias at the worst, or inability to analyze econmic data at the least.
The current spate of predictions of a recession are premature. It always starts with a doom and gloom shot from the gao, various investment firms use white out and write in their names, spicing up, but usually down, the numbers.
4qGDP will go in at 2.5%. I base this on the consistency of the gao miisng the number by 30-50% below actual. Hard to believe that this is the same 'non-partisan' crew that was predicting a budget surplus over several years, despite their inability to even guess gdp 3 months ahead.
apb
· 2 years ago
Eh -
Clinton's "spot-on" GDP was based on the internet bubble - after the speculative collapse, GDP fell to the floor, along with any supposed "surplus." Is current growth stable? Yes. Does current tax policy promote growth and increase revenue to the gubmint? Yes.
I believe we'll see recession if the Dems can implement their MO - increased taxes and pork. We're already seeing the pork, but once new taxes (or elimination of breaks) hit we'll see business spending pullbacks, increased unemployment and higher prices. It's bad enough to see food prices spiral due to bogus energy policies - the current ethanol stupidity (courtesy protective tariffs) is nothing but grief.
Pixelkiller
· 2 years ago
What am I not understanding? A year or so ago, a bunch of us would meet on Saturday mornings in the parking lot of one of those big malls here in nothern New Jersey. (AKA, Doity Joisey). I'd get there a little early, drink my Dunkin Donuts coffee and watch the young kids waiting outside for the doors to open so they could go inside to their jobs of stocking shelves and manning sales counters. The thought occured to me that this mall, like all the rest, was a giant factory retail outlet. Where were the factories that made this stuff? Overseas! Riding to that mall I had to pass by what used to be a giant railroad yard just north of Newark Airport. It wasn't a railroad yard any more. It was a storage facility for empty containers. They were stacked 9 high and the piles went on and on. There was a "Containers for sale" sign tied to the nearest pile. So, "consumer buying statistics" seems to me to be something any foreign government would be interested in. I mean, when was the last time you saw a "Made in America" lable? So, I seems to me again, that the guys prospering are the guys making all that stuff that came here in those containers and is being sold in those malls. Retail sales figures are really a comment on how well these foreign factories are doing. Meanwhile, we take in one another's laundry and man sales counters. Like I said, what am I not understanding?
All Comments
Just about every year, especially around election time, I hear that the economy is in the toilet and will only get worse. Just about every year, especially just before the holiday shopping season, I hear that consumer spending is decreasing and that this will have a huge, negative effect on our economy. And just about every year the American consumer (failing to hear that they have reduced spending and that the economy is contracting, I guess) prove the "experts" wrong and spend a record amount of money to buy a record amount of products. When will the "experts" learn that one should never underestimate the power of the American consumer?
Are there potential problems with the economy? Sure: we can't expect the economy to expand at high rates forever. Eventually, the cycle always returns to low growth or recession, though good fiscal policy can soften the blow of an economic downturn. But much is out of the control of the government (or bloody well should be); viper123456 raises good points about the subprime market and the truly stupid decisions banks made to lend money to high-risk customers. O' course, the usual suspects in DC are talking about a government bail-out, which will force John Q. Taxpayer to pay for the bad decisions made by banks as well as moronic customers who never stopped to consider whether they really COULD afford a $200k mortgage on a $25k salary.
Another thing the government can't really control is consumer confidence, and as Cap'n Ed points out, the MSM is doing its level best to torpedo that... just in time for elections.
The Black Friday stats cited mean little in terms of potential for continued growth - consumers spent less per person on average this Black Friday than last year, and retailers were much more aggressive on trying to pull consumers in their stores - cutting their margins. All of that means our growth from last year was funding by borrowing against an assumption of future growth.
It's a national margin call, gentlemen.
Last month, I got into extended discussions with many on this blog re: the stock market, and when the Dow was at 13,600, I said it would see 12,000 before it saw 15,000. Right now it's between 12,900 and 13,000.
I'll even go a little out on a limb with a few more predictions:
Look for CountryWide to file bankruptcy within 4 months if the credit rating agencies don't cut its rating. If they do, CountryWide goes under before the new year.
We'll see a rally thru the end of year (Christmas optimism) but the Dow goes under 12, 000 by January 31.
At least one major investment bank goes under next year. Citigroup looks like the early lead for this, but there are some dark horses out there.
Recession by summer.
Home prices crater by at least another 10 percent by July, in some areas more likely 20-25 percent.
Worldwide economic recession, when we catch pneumonia, the rest of the world catches AIDS. Look for China to be a canary in the mine here, they are running way too hot and Beijing knows it.
Buckle your seat belts, strap in, and hang onto your gold. It's gonna be a wild ride.
I don't say that we're not in for some bad times. As I wrote earlier, the business cycle is, well, cyclical. The economy can't expand forever.
However, having the MSM out every day shouting gloom 'n' doom certainly doesn't help, and may make things a bit worse.
Which is exactly what I think they're playing at.
Again, if the economy really is doing that bad, and the weak dollar is truly a disaster for this country, the first real signs that the consumer was nervous would have been in Black Friday shopping. Instead it was up almost 10% from last year.
As much as the media wants 2008 to be a referendum about Bush, he has nothing to do with it. He's gone in 2008, an ex-President. But come 2009 we'll still be in Iraq. The question is how serious are we about finishing the job and winning now that we're on the right track in the country?
So explain to me why, this year, I should have joined a line more than 10 percent longer at an even earlier time to get the same result?
/sarcasm
I'll just do my shopping in early December, when the lines are sane. And, judging from last year's results, the merchants mustn't have done too bad then either.
All the usual suspects on the left have been poking this puppy real hard for the last 5 or 6 months and amazingly all of them with almost exact talking points.
Better to not get stuck behind those late model, "fuel-efficient", luxury SUVs on the roads.
Tell me again what exactly is the point of paying attention to anything the media says? Might as well watch cartoons, I'll be less ill-informed than I will be if I watch CNN.
The Economy can't be too bad if these pricey toys are already gone!
I read in the NY Times that the number of murders is the lowest since they've been counting (1963).
Can't be because all of the liberal "root causes of crime" nonsense is in the ash bin of history.
Look for the bi-weekly Paul Krugman lunacy to discount it as well.
These lefties are so boringly predictable that it's hardly worth discussing anymore.
Women, children and minorities hardest hit, eh?
I'm glad that some of you here are doing well, but with rising gas prices and medical bills it will be a lean Christmas in our household this year. I've already had to tell our son to forget about getting a new Xbox 360 this Christmas.
As for your son and his precious Xbox 360, try and lower his expectations. I assume that by the price of said item that your son is accustomed to receiving Christmas gifts that cost $300 apiece. For many people in this country, that $300 is the same as a monthly house or car payment. Shouldn't the gift be something not based on monetary value or current popular culture cachet?
I came from a family that was definitely NOT poor, but even adjusted for inflation I never received a Christmas gift that pricey.
And you know what? I was happy and grateful for everything I received.
If the worst problem someone has is they can't afford an overpriced gift for their kids, they are truly fortunate.
The National Retail Foundation expects that 72 million people will spend over $700 million.
Personally, there's nothing that could have got me into a store this past weekend. There's a lot of people like me who do all of their shopping online.
This weekend accounts for about 5% of year-end holiday spending. It's still too early to say if this year will be good for retailers or not. It's certain that people feel less well off as the housing market has fallen apart. And as the dollar continues its decline, it's amazing that the prices of imported goods (think of everything from China) have continued to hold steady. The US is an import-crazed country, and dollar deflation will eventually lead to real price inflation. It's only a matter of time unless the dollar stabilizes or reverses course.
As for our policy of bankrolling a war by printing more dollars instead of raising taxes, Johnson did the same in Vietnam over 30 years ago. If you took an economics class in the 80's or 90's, you would have learned that most economics attributed those policies of budget irresponsibility to the inflationary pain experienced by Americans over the following decades. History does repeat itself, and we're foolish not to take the current economic imbalances more seriously.
Someone should be pushing the big red warning button.
The dollar crisis is more of a Euro crisis because the Europeans, who already have low growth or stagnant economies, are facing the loss of markets and a flood of US imports. It might surprise you that the US exports a wide range of industrial goods and services that are in direct competition with Europe. If the Euro remains high European countries will simply “outsource” their production of goods destined for the American market to the United States reducing employment in Europe and increasing it here. This will only exacerbate the differential growth rates between US and the EU. I agree that this is not stable and will eventually lead to a global economic crisis. The United States cannot sustain its own economic expansion indefinitely while the European economy spirals downward.
If you want to actually observe this phenomenon I suggest a quick trip to the US-Canada border on a Saturday afternoon. Shopping mall parking lots are filled with Canadian license plates while those on the other side of the border are empty of cars and the shops are devoid of customers. Eventually this will lead to more jobs for Americans and less for Canadians.
We have developed an international trade policy based on the assumption that all nations will pursue pro-growth policies. This assumption has proven to be incorrect because our European and Japanese trading partners for various reasons have not done this over a twenty year period. If Europe does not reverse its statist course then the world economy based upon open trade will collapse into a 1930’s era of protectionism and global depression. There is some hope that France under Sarkozy will take the lead in changing attitudes in Europe toward pro-growth policies. His Reagan-like face down of the French trade unions is a hopeful step in the right direction.
Here is a article in the Daily Telegraph (UK) on the reality of the Dollar-Euro Crisis:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambroseva...
I'm not trying to cast a pall on the happiness over the increase in Black Friday sales. But all economies have ups and downs, and I don't want conservatives to be uncritically cheerful and taking credit for development that they may have little influence on, thereby tying themselves to downturns that they are also unable to influence. Yes, the economy continues to trend upward and that is good news. But if you want to hitch your political wagon to an economic agenda, you might want to stick with things that the GOP is responsible for like child tax credits and other income tax reductions.
All views are possible, no way to tell until halfway through the 4th quarter.
Even then, there might be some surprises in store.
Enter W:
I have never seen a more complete decline in accuracy, occutr so quickly, and the number is consistently lower than actual outcome. To the avergae person, it means little, becuase they believe the difference between 3% gdp and 1.5% is 1.5%. IT's actually a difference of 50%. This kind of miss is excusable, but to miss consitently low would suggest some bias at the worst, or inability to analyze econmic data at the least.
The current spate of predictions of a recession are premature. It always starts with a doom and gloom shot from the gao, various investment firms use white out and write in their names, spicing up, but usually down, the numbers.
4qGDP will go in at 2.5%. I base this on the consistency of the gao miisng the number by 30-50% below actual. Hard to believe that this is the same 'non-partisan' crew that was predicting a budget surplus over several years, despite their inability to even guess gdp 3 months ahead.
Clinton's "spot-on" GDP was based on the internet bubble - after the speculative collapse, GDP fell to the floor, along with any supposed "surplus." Is current growth stable? Yes. Does current tax policy promote growth and increase revenue to the gubmint? Yes.
I believe we'll see recession if the Dems can implement their MO - increased taxes and pork. We're already seeing the pork, but once new taxes (or elimination of breaks) hit we'll see business spending pullbacks, increased unemployment and higher prices. It's bad enough to see food prices spiral due to bogus energy policies - the current ethanol stupidity (courtesy protective tariffs) is nothing but grief.
A year or so ago, a bunch of us would meet on Saturday mornings in the parking lot of one of those big malls here in nothern New Jersey. (AKA, Doity Joisey). I'd get there a little early, drink my Dunkin Donuts coffee and watch the young kids waiting outside for the doors to open so they could go inside to their jobs of stocking shelves and manning sales counters. The thought occured to me that this mall, like all the rest, was a giant factory retail outlet. Where were the factories that made this stuff? Overseas!
Riding to that mall I had to pass by what used to be a giant railroad yard just north of Newark Airport. It wasn't a railroad yard any more. It was a storage facility for empty containers. They were stacked 9 high and the piles went on and on. There was a "Containers for sale" sign tied to the nearest pile.
So, "consumer buying statistics" seems to me to be something any foreign government would be interested in. I mean, when was the last time you saw a "Made in America" lable? So, I seems to me again, that the guys prospering are the guys making all that stuff that came here in those containers and is being sold in those malls. Retail sales figures are really a comment on how well these foreign factories are doing. Meanwhile, we take in one another's laundry and man sales counters.
Like I said, what am I not understanding?