Captain's Quarters Comments - Latest Comments in Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

herddog505 — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 17:22:41 -0000

ODM,

I don't say that we're not in for some bad times. As I wrote earlier, the business cycle is, well, cyclical. The economy can't expand forever.

However, having the MSM out every day shouting gloom 'n' doom certainly doesn't help, and may make things a bit worse.

Which is exactly what I think they're playing at.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Pixelkiller — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 12:49:13 -0000

What am I not understanding?
A year or so ago, a bunch of us would meet on Saturday mornings in the parking lot of one of those big malls here in nothern New Jersey. (AKA, Doity Joisey). I'd get there a little early, drink my Dunkin Donuts coffee and watch the young kids waiting outside for the doors to open so they could go inside to their jobs of stocking shelves and manning sales counters. The thought occured to me that this mall, like all the rest, was a giant factory retail outlet. Where were the factories that made this stuff? Overseas!
Riding to that mall I had to pass by what used to be a giant railroad yard just north of Newark Airport. It wasn't a railroad yard any more. It was a storage facility for empty containers. They were stacked 9 high and the piles went on and on. There was a "Containers for sale" sign tied to the nearest pile.
So, "consumer buying statistics" seems to me to be something any foreign government would be interested in. I mean, when was the last time you saw a "Made in America" lable? So, I seems to me again, that the guys prospering are the guys making all that stuff that came here in those containers and is being sold in those malls. Retail sales figures are really a comment on how well these foreign factories are doing. Meanwhile, we take in one another's laundry and man sales counters.
Like I said, what am I not understanding?

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Red — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 11:29:06 -0000

You are basing your point on "dollars". Since the dollar is depreciating $1.7 trillion in exports is meaningless unless you times it by .60. Then it's not so much of a record.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

apb — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 09:52:32 -0000

Eh -

Clinton's "spot-on" GDP was based on the internet bubble - after the speculative collapse, GDP fell to the floor, along with any supposed "surplus." Is current growth stable? Yes. Does current tax policy promote growth and increase revenue to the gubmint? Yes.

I believe we'll see recession if the Dems can implement their MO - increased taxes and pork. We're already seeing the pork, but once new taxes (or elimination of breaks) hit we'll see business spending pullbacks, increased unemployment and higher prices. It's bad enough to see food prices spiral due to bogus energy policies - the current ethanol stupidity (courtesy protective tariffs) is nothing but grief.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Math_Mage — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 01:30:49 -0000

Get a Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 with the five best games for it ever made, plus extra controllers. Cheaper and more fun.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

chaking — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 23:58:14 -0000

Maybe we had a better showing because all the Canadians came down here to shop on the cheap for once!! I mean, my whole life the U.S. dollar has been the strongest in North America, now that the US dollar is so weak, maybe the canadians are just happy to take advantage? But yeah, I too think the economy is absolutely perfect since we had a lot of people shopping on the day after thanksgiving!

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Kevin — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 22:43:24 -0000

Time will tell but exports are booming as we're on pace to set a world record $1.7 trillion in exports, and now maybe the consumer is booming through the holidays too. This may be the first time the U.S. has gone through a "recession" growing GDP at +4% every step of the way.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

olddeadmeat — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 16:48:22 -0000

Oops, my bad, the Dow slipped just a little bit more since lunch - to under 12, 750. Doesn't look like the market feels too good about Black Friday, eh?

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

olddeadmeat — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 14:37:15 -0000

docjim, you know how I hate to ever disagree with anyone on this board, but the MSM is waaaaaay behind the curve on what is coming. We are just starting on the downslope towards a recession. Here's why: Enormously low interest rates fueled a bubble on real estate prices, which consumers then borrowed against to fund consumer spending. That is all grinding to a halt.
The Black Friday stats cited mean little in terms of potential for continued growth - consumers spent less per person on average this Black Friday than last year, and retailers were much more aggressive on trying to pull consumers in their stores - cutting their margins. All of that means our growth from last year was funding by borrowing against an assumption of future growth.
It's a national margin call, gentlemen.
Last month, I got into extended discussions with many on this blog re: the stock market, and when the Dow was at 13,600, I said it would see 12,000 before it saw 15,000. Right now it's between 12,900 and 13,000.
I'll even go a little out on a limb with a few more predictions:
Look for CountryWide to file bankruptcy within 4 months if the credit rating agencies don't cut its rating. If they do, CountryWide goes under before the new year.
We'll see a rally thru the end of year (Christmas optimism) but the Dow goes under 12, 000 by January 31.
At least one major investment bank goes under next year. Citigroup looks like the early lead for this, but there are some dark horses out there.
Recession by summer.
Home prices crater by at least another 10 percent by July, in some areas more likely 20-25 percent.
Worldwide economic recession, when we catch pneumonia, the rest of the world catches AIDS. Look for China to be a canary in the mine here, they are running way too hot and Beijing knows it.
Buckle your seat belts, strap in, and hang onto your gold. It's gonna be a wild ride.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

jerry — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 13:07:54 -0000

Bayam:

The dollar crisis is more of a Euro crisis because the Europeans, who already have low growth or stagnant economies, are facing the loss of markets and a flood of US imports. It might surprise you that the US exports a wide range of industrial goods and services that are in direct competition with Europe. If the Euro remains high European countries will simply “outsource” their production of goods destined for the American market to the United States reducing employment in Europe and increasing it here. This will only exacerbate the differential growth rates between US and the EU. I agree that this is not stable and will eventually lead to a global economic crisis. The United States cannot sustain its own economic expansion indefinitely while the European economy spirals downward.

If you want to actually observe this phenomenon I suggest a quick trip to the US-Canada border on a Saturday afternoon. Shopping mall parking lots are filled with Canadian license plates while those on the other side of the border are empty of cars and the shops are devoid of customers. Eventually this will lead to more jobs for Americans and less for Canadians.

We have developed an international trade policy based on the assumption that all nations will pursue pro-growth policies. This assumption has proven to be incorrect because our European and Japanese trading partners for various reasons have not done this over a twenty year period. If Europe does not reverse its statist course then the world economy based upon open trade will collapse into a 1930’s era of protectionism and global depression. There is some hope that France under Sarkozy will take the lead in changing attitudes in Europe toward pro-growth policies. His Reagan-like face down of the French trade unions is a hopeful step in the right direction.

Here is a article in the Daily Telegraph (UK) on the reality of the Dollar-Euro Crisis:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.u...

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Red — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 11:45:03 -0000

Think of this though...a lot of the goods being purchased are made over seas. Our dollar is depreciating rapidly, so far about 40%. So we get a statistic based on dollars..what does this mean? We are buying the same amount, (or less), of goods as last year but paying more for them. Therefore; more dollars spent, not more goods bought. What seems like prosperity isn't.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

always_right — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 11:36:17 -0000

This is similar to "predict" any (football) game based on the first possessions of each team.
All views are possible, no way to tell until halfway through the 4th quarter.
Even then, there might be some surprises in store.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

ThunderRun — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 11:15:57 -0000

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 11/26/2007 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Immolate — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 10:49:06 -0000

I am hardly a proponent of doom and gloom, but I wouldn't get overly excited just yet. Black Friday is a phenomena that changes, evolves even, year to year. Twenty years ago, consumers were not generally familiar with the concept, and retailers were far more conservative in their marketing to embrace the day. This year, the retailers have pulled out all the stops and a lot of really excellent deals were available for early shoppers. How much the marketing and major sales impacted a change in gross sales vs. last year is hard to quantify, but it is a variable. Also, with average expenditures being lower than last year, it is difficult to assume too much.

I'm not trying to cast a pall on the happiness over the increase in Black Friday sales. But all economies have ups and downs, and I don't want conservatives to be uncritically cheerful and taking credit for development that they may have little influence on, thereby tying themselves to downturns that they are also unable to influence. Yes, the economy continues to trend upward and that is good news. But if you want to hitch your political wagon to an economic agenda, you might want to stick with things that the GOP is responsible for like child tax credits and other income tax reductions.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

James Brooks — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 01:13:19 -0000

Well, the experts who are largely fueling stories in the media may yet be right.

This weekend accounts for about 5% of year-end holiday spending. It's still too early to say if this year will be good for retailers or not. It's certain that people feel less well off as the housing market has fallen apart. And as the dollar continues its decline, it's amazing that the prices of imported goods (think of everything from China) have continued to hold steady. The US is an import-crazed country, and dollar deflation will eventually lead to real price inflation. It's only a matter of time unless the dollar stabilizes or reverses course.

As for our policy of bankrolling a war by printing more dollars instead of raising taxes, Johnson did the same in Vietnam over 30 years ago. If you took an economics class in the 80's or 90's, you would have learned that most economics attributed those policies of budget irresponsibility to the inflationary pain experienced by Americans over the following decades. History does repeat itself, and we're foolish not to take the current economic imbalances more seriously.

Someone should be pushing the big red warning button.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Dave_in_MA — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 23:43:31 -0000

Remember "It's the Economy, Stupid"? The MSM and their pet political party have a proven track record with this crap.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

SaipanDrunkenSailor — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 21:48:00 -0000

I was thinking that too. I doubt my parents spent more than $30 on me a Christmas, much less $300 (adjusted for inflation).

And you know what? I was happy and grateful for everything I received.

If the worst problem someone has is they can't afford an overpriced gift for their kids, they are truly fortunate.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Del_Dolemonte — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 21:16:44 -0000

"The latest figures" you quote-without a cite-no doubt were "reported" by the same mainstream media news sources that are the original topic of this thread.

As for your son and his precious Xbox 360, try and lower his expectations. I assume that by the price of said item that your son is accustomed to receiving Christmas gifts that cost $300 apiece. For many people in this country, that $300 is the same as a monthly house or car payment. Shouldn't the gift be something not based on monetary value or current popular culture cachet?

I came from a family that was definitely NOT poor, but even adjusted for inflation I never received a Christmas gift that pricey.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

SaipanDrunkenSailor — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 20:42:21 -0000

Tomorrow will be the biggest sales day ever for online retailing.

The National Retail Foundation expects that 72 million people will spend over $700 million.

Personally, there's nothing that could have got me into a store this past weekend. There's a lot of people like me who do all of their shopping online.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Teresa — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 19:19:49 -0000

Hate to burst your bubble, but the latest figures show that buyers spent LESS on average this weekend than they did last year. And, even last year, Thanksgiving weekend with all the sales was good while the rest of the season sucked.

I'm glad that some of you here are doing well, but with rising gas prices and medical bills it will be a lean Christmas in our household this year. I've already had to tell our son to forget about getting a new Xbox 360 this Christmas.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

SaipanDrunkenSailor — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 19:18:59 -0000

Yes, that will give time for the DNC to pass on some lies and spin to the MSM.

Look for the bi-weekly Paul Krugman lunacy to discount it as well.

These lefties are so boringly predictable that it's hardly worth discussing anymore.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Texnav77 — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 18:10:41 -0000

Seems true enough..The Fort Worth Star Telegram ran a three page "horror" story on mortgages and forecloser in Section A and a one-quarter colmn on the "good" sale day on page A-18 today. No ill meaning intended, I'm sure.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

herddog505 — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 18:04:32 -0000

al-AP via DCNN: The nation's retailers had a robust start to the holiday shopping season, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that tracks sales at retail outlets across the country.

Women, children and minorities hardest hit, eh?

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

Teresa — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 17:44:18 -0000

Actually, other news reports say that while Friday was good -- fueled in large part by deep, deep discounts -- the rest of the weekend was not as good. I'd wait a bit before getting too excited about just Friday.

Re: Bad Economy? Not So Far, Although Good Luck Reading About It

SaipanDrunkenSailor — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 17:16:57 -0000

And the homeless will disappear.

I read in the NY Times that the number of murders is the lowest since they've been counting (1963).

Can't be because all of the liberal "root causes of crime" nonsense is in the ash bin of history.