One wild card in this whole game I have seen speculation on around the net is that it is really in the self interest of India to possibly assist Pakistan if this situation starts getting really out of hand.
They have been quiet and not taking advantage of the unrest and are also quite aware that AQ and others are the real movers behind the terrorist attacks they have suffered of the last 3 years or so.
It is possible they would rather have a stalemate of understanding with Musharaff than a known worse case of an AQ/Taliban cabal taking over the place that really put them in a self protective foot stomping mood.
iowavette
· 2 years ago
The mainstream media including the WSJ are providing little background material on Bhutto and her family in their articles. This leaves readers to assume she's working from a Ghandi-esque perspective when that clearly is not the case.
quickjustice
· 2 years ago
I heard an NPR interview with a reporter in Pakistan yesterday. The interviewer asked the reporter how popular Bhutto and her party are in Pakistan right now. The answer: She and her party have significant support in only one province of the country. She has little support anywhere else in the country, Musharraf's crackdown notwithstanding. Her reputation for corruption is well known in Pakistan, and her return is NOT being celebrated by most Pakistanis.
Her threat to ally with Islamist parties is political jockeying. Her goal is renewed personal access to Pakistan's treasury, whatever the tactics. She's rather like a Pakistani Hillary Clinton.
onlineanalyst
· 2 years ago
If I may, I would like to reprise a comment posted very late from an earlier thread (Nov. 12) on Musharaff and Bhutto. It has even more relevance now, given the alliances Bhutto is making and the threats from Waziristan.
Added to this mix of instability threatening Musharraf's protecting Pakistan are the rumblings from the ever-bubbling Islamic-Taliban tribal conflicts in the Waziristan area.
While Benazir Bhutto may be playing her own self-aggrandizement, power-seeking games, she may set off a powder keg that thrusts her country into the hands of radical forces and inadvertently costs her own life.
Below is linked an excellent review of several books that clarify the historic clashes between tribal Islam and Western values, as well as the perceived threats that fundamentalist Islam feels towards globalization, education, and modernity, especially as these ideas relate to the current situation in Pakistan and the whole ME: http://www.claremont.org/publications/crb/ID.14... The review was linked at NRO.
Opening passages that connect some dots:
"Having recovered the safe haven once denied them by America's invasion of Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and the Taliban have gathered the diaspora of the worldwide Islamist revolution into Waziristan. Slipping to safety from Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden himself almost certainly escaped across its border. Now Muslim punjabis who fight the Indian army in Kashmir, Chechen opponents of Russia, and many more Islamist terror groups congregate, recuperate, train, and confer in Waziristan. This past fall's terror plotters in Germany and Denmark allegedly trained in Waziristan, as did those who hoped to highjack transatlantic planes leaving from Britain's Heathrow Airport in 2006. The crimson currents flowing across what Samuel Huntington once famously dubbed "Islam's bloody borders" now seem to emanate from Waziristan.
"Slowly but surely, the Islamic Emirate's writ is pushing beyond Waziristan itself, to encompass other sections of Pakistan's mountainous tribal regions—thereby fueling the ongoing insurgency across the border in Afghanistan. With a third of Pakistanis in a recent poll expressing favorable views of al-Qaeda, and 49% registering favorable opinions of local jihadi terror groups, the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan may yet conquer Pakistan. Fear of a widening Islamist rebellion in this nuclear-armed state was General Musharraf's stated reason for the recent imposition of a state of emergency. And in fact Osama bin Laden publicly called for the overthrow of Musharraf's government this past September. It is for fear of provoking such a disastrous revolt that we have so far dared not loose the American military steamroller in Waziristan..."
Lots to think about in the summation of the three books, but one of the intriguing ideas in the review toward the end is that working with tribal leaders, as is currently being done through COIN in Iraq, may counteract the hostilities between warring tribes that are vulnerable to the siren-song of AlQaeda and the Taliban.
unclesmrgol
· 2 years ago
And the worst part of this is the nukes. The Islamists in Pakistan, Iran, and elsewhere may not have to wait much longer before getting weapons capable of striking great fear (or worse) into the Great Satan.
If the Islamists take over, we'll be facing some truly sisyphean choices.
kw64
· 2 years ago
Bhutto should beware that Al Qaeda, Taliban, Hamas and other Islamists will make deals to share power and then will seize it for themselves. If she fights Musharaff and loses, she gets deported. If she sides with the Islamists and wins, she gets assasinated. Poor choice on her part to stab Musharaff in the back.
DayTrader
· 2 years ago
Each time in the past that Bhutto had power she showed nothing but corruption at all levels and used the national treasury like her personal piggy bank.
Right now she is heading into deep water and trying to play politics with the big boys well beyond any real capability she has.
Either Sharif or AQ or the Taliban tried to take her out soon after her arrival back in country. She makes a deal with the devil and she will not live to regret it.
Democracy has been over ridden, not by Musharaff, but by the interference of AQ, the Taliban and other religious extremists.
What is happening now is putting breaks on with the few tools he has available to stop the run away freight train from gaining speed.
No matter what political recommendations result in a coalition of power it is sure money that AQ and the Taliban will throw every monkey wrench into it they can.
They are in fact reaching the point of desperation in a lot of ways and have their back to the wall.
Iraq is rejecting them out of hand, Afghanistan has weaknesses they are trying to exploit and they feel secure in the tribal areas. They can create chaos in the city populations with sympathetic useful idiots but that have to turn the ISI or the military or both to make their plans work.
AQ knows if they don't succeed then they will have to go north to the various whatever stans across the border and Russia won't take very kindly to that and have no problem with using extreme measures like kill everyone and let Allah sort em out.
China keeps poking where they can to keep the pot stirred in both India and Pakistan for their own reasons. And if AQ tries to relocate in their territories China also will bring out the hammer rather than the fly swatter.
Be it Musharaff or those who follow on, if this goes into full brinkmanship, I would not be surprised for the ruling coalition to literally take aim against the tribal areas and declare it a free fire zone especially if it gets pushed on them first. They in fact may have no other choice.
coldwarrior415
· 2 years ago
Bhotto will make any alliance with any party just so that in the end she is in charge. Sharif is no friend of Bhutto. Bhutto is no friend of Sharif. The record shows this clearly. If Bhutto believes she and she alone can unite Pakistan, she is terribly mistaken. She doesn't want elections. She has already stated that she and her party will not participate in the scheduled January elections. Sharif and his party most likely will. Then what? Sharif emerges as the legally elected leader of Pakistan? And the Islamists? They have already taken over large segments of Pakistan over the past few weeks, beyond the tribal areas in Waziristan. They don't want Bhutto. Many are not all that thrilled with Sharif. Musharaf has a few weeks, perhaps a couple months, at best. Then, the real chaos ensues. All because Bhutto reneged on public promises and led many many Pakistanis to believe that she and Musharaf would bring relative peace to Pakistan and together go after the greater Islamist threat. Now, all of that is off the table.
Christoph
· 2 years ago
Captain Ed, please study Cold Warrior's comment. His contained the truth and your analysis in the part I blockquoted below, was off. Way way off.
Christoph
· 2 years ago
it looks more like Bhutto sees Musharraf as more dangerous than the Islamists now
No no no! She doesn't see him as more dangerous to anything (other than to her own ambition). The spoiled child of privilege wants power and by God, she wants it now. All along, she has pushed like an immature brat for everything to be done now because long range plan for the benefit of Pakistan is not something she does well. She is a creature of opportunity.
Mike M.
· 2 years ago
Ms. Bhutto seems to me like she's really playing with fire. This is serious high-stakes poker here in Pakistan, and not a game for dilettantes. Does she honestly believe that the throwbacks who put women in burqas are going to honor any agreement they make with her?
I wouldn't give a plug nickel for her long-term life expectancy.
Ken Hahn
· 2 years ago
I'm not much of a fan of Musharraf, but Bhutto is not a savior for Pakistan. She has as little respect for democracy as does he and a far greater toleration of corruption. There is no good solution available in Pakistan at this time.
Jose
· 2 years ago
So I suppose the Pakistani people voting in an election is out of the question then?
LenS
· 2 years ago
Actually, this is good news. The fiction that we can work with Pakistan will soon be over. And we can finally do what should have been done on September 12th, 2001 -- an all out attack with one goal -- the destruction of Pakistan, the creator of the Taliban. Perhaps someday, we'll get to repeat the process with the House of Saud, the nation that brought us Al-Qaeda and spreads the evil of Wahhabism around the globe.
Agim Zabeli
· 2 years ago
Captain:
I arrived in Hyderabad, India in May and I've been wondering why nobody here seems all that upset or interested in what's going on right next door in Pakistan. The feeling I get is that Indians see this as just another day in the office in Pakistani politics. The "emergency" is no better or worse than things they have seen before.
You write: "(I)t looks more like Bhutto sees Musharraf as more dangerous than the Islamists now, a conclusion Washington will not share."
The possibility you don't mention - and right now the one I think is the strongest - is that Bhutto is and always has been in politics for herself and the empowerment and enrichment of her circle. Islamism, "democracy", whatever. She may not see Musharraf as a "danger" to the Pakistani republic because she may just not even think in those western-oriented terms. The possibility is she just wants power and wealth, and will get it any way she can, with Musharaf or with the islamists. If the average Pakistani sees Bhutto the same way the average Indian sees Indian politicos, that could explain why the Pakistani masses are so far sitting out this crisis. Bhutto in power will do much for her own friends and cronies, but I don't know that the man on the street believes he will be any better off under her than he is under Musharraf. Make no mistake, a "democratic" Pakistan, led by Bhutto, will be just as authoritarian as a Pakistan under "emergency law" is under the General. Maybe even more so.
Bill
· 2 years ago
Read Fatima Bhutto's opinion of her Aunt Benizer posted in the Opinion Section of the LA Times today. Very interesting:
Bill, this sounds exactly like the Benazir Bhutto I have come to know over the years in the region. I am appalled that very little of this gets any traction in the press, was amazed that the LA Times even ran the article, and astounded that from all the rumblings at the top, across the board, there are so many influential people here in the US and across Europe who view Bhutto as the Pakistani-Gandhi.
Alex
· 2 years ago
How could one seriously talk of Bhutto? She is criminal as Al Kapone and corrupt as his municipality's friends, a convicted criminal with Interpol warrant. Consider this: http://samsonblinded.org/blog/supporting-their-...
lexhamfox
· 2 years ago
Sharif is not wedded to militants or militant Islam. Bhutto does not have the following to hold the country together. The United States needs to find an alternative to Musharaf or at least not be seen to be propping up a government which shows so much contempt for the rule of law and democracy in Pakistan. It may be seen as a short term setback if Musharaf is replaced and the focus of the Pakistani military is taken off the frontier wars but it is in the vital long term interest of Pakistan and the United States to have stronger democratic and legal institutions in Pakistan. I think Bush and his advisors know this and they know that elections in the absence of an independent judiciary are meaningless. The coalition against Musharaf goes beyond just Bhutto and Sharif and covers a wide cross section of Pakistani movements. Some we like and a few we don't. I expect the US recognize its long term interest and push Musharaf very hard behind the scenes to climb down from his current stance.
coldwarrior415
· 2 years ago
Musharaf may have no choice but to step down. I'd have to believe that he is having deep discussions with members of his senior staff, to include Lt. Gen. Tariq Majid, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Lt. Gen. Salahuddin Satti, and Lt. Gen. Muhammad Yousaf, all younger officers. Musharaf, with therse officers, could set up a mechanism for his departure that would not leave Pakistan exposed. An interim peaceful transfer of power to these four officers. Kayani and Majid are a bit more popular among the military and none of these four has any particular organized opposition within the military or among the general civilian population. All are opposed to Islamic rule in Pakistan.
A short term military council, then internationally supervised elections in January. Musharaf, reluctantly leaves Pakistan, gets a house near Sandhurst, becomes a professor of military science.
Bhutto is defeated at the polls. Sharif takes over. Then the real work of facing down the very real threats to Pakistan begins.
Just one possible scenario.
bruce
· 2 years ago
what's a female rag head to do for power? apparently anything join with fanatical killers no problem homocide bombers come on down. aren't these muzzies wonder full subhumans all we need to do is reason with them and all will be well .we need to kill the bastards before they kill us the only thing we should talking about is when and with what weapons.
Carol_Herman
· 2 years ago
Well, she tried one approach. And, it was blocked.
As to the lawyers, who are the real trouble-makers, getting the streets to work for them ... THIS, I DOUBT!
Pakistan's a real pickle. For Bhutto? It's just corruption. For Musharraf, however, its a strong love for his country.
Americans get confused. We think if you're not elected, you're not "legit." Which is a far cry from reality. Most countries are operating legitimately. Even in Africa. Where all the tribe has is barefoot tribespeople. And, drums.
Leadership doesn't mean you need to be elected, folks.
Putin's about to prove that, again, BIG TIME.
Hugo Chavez, too, understands that the man who controls a country sitting on top of oil wealth, has to tell his tailor to make the pockets very big. Every day just makes you richer. Less likely to hold elections. And, more likely to distribute bullets.
While in gazoo, the West's "experiement" in elections ... has just about bitten the dust, too.
Musharraf, I will BET! Is praying for the year to pass quickly.
Does he want to see Bush out of office? Yes.
Will Bush look a lot like Jimmy Carter? Yeah. I think so. He'll be leaving. And, around the world there will be countries holding back on celebrations until January 20, 2009.
In the USA? What's the size of the GOP, when you count elected heads?
All Comments
They have been quiet and not taking advantage of the unrest and are also quite aware that AQ and others are the real movers behind the terrorist attacks they have suffered of the last 3 years or so.
It is possible they would rather have a stalemate of understanding with Musharaff than a known worse case of an AQ/Taliban cabal taking over the place that really put them in a self protective foot stomping mood.
Her threat to ally with Islamist parties is political jockeying. Her goal is renewed personal access to Pakistan's treasury, whatever the tactics. She's rather like a Pakistani Hillary Clinton.
Added to this mix of instability threatening Musharraf's protecting Pakistan are the rumblings from the ever-bubbling Islamic-Taliban tribal conflicts in the Waziristan area.
While Benazir Bhutto may be playing her own self-aggrandizement, power-seeking games, she may set off a powder keg that thrusts her country into the hands of radical forces and inadvertently costs her own life.
Below is linked an excellent review of several books that clarify the historic clashes between tribal Islam and Western values, as well as the perceived threats that fundamentalist Islam feels towards globalization, education, and modernity, especially as these ideas relate to the current situation in Pakistan and the whole ME: http://www.claremont.org/publications/crb/ID.14...
The review was linked at NRO.
Opening passages that connect some dots:
"Having recovered the safe haven once denied them by America's invasion of Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and the Taliban have gathered the diaspora of the worldwide Islamist revolution into Waziristan. Slipping to safety from Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden himself almost certainly escaped across its border. Now Muslim punjabis who fight the Indian army in Kashmir, Chechen opponents of Russia, and many more Islamist terror groups congregate, recuperate, train, and confer in Waziristan. This past fall's terror plotters in Germany and Denmark allegedly trained in Waziristan, as did those who hoped to highjack transatlantic planes leaving from Britain's Heathrow Airport in 2006. The crimson currents flowing across what Samuel Huntington once famously dubbed "Islam's bloody borders" now seem to emanate from Waziristan.
"Slowly but surely, the Islamic Emirate's writ is pushing beyond Waziristan itself, to encompass other sections of Pakistan's mountainous tribal regions—thereby fueling the ongoing insurgency across the border in Afghanistan. With a third of Pakistanis in a recent poll expressing favorable views of al-Qaeda, and 49% registering favorable opinions of local jihadi terror groups, the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan may yet conquer Pakistan. Fear of a widening Islamist rebellion in this nuclear-armed state was General Musharraf's stated reason for the recent imposition of a state of emergency. And in fact Osama bin Laden publicly called for the overthrow of Musharraf's government this past September. It is for fear of provoking such a disastrous revolt that we have so far dared not loose the American military steamroller in Waziristan..."
Lots to think about in the summation of the three books, but one of the intriguing ideas in the review toward the end is that working with tribal leaders, as is currently being done through COIN in Iraq, may counteract the hostilities between warring tribes that are vulnerable to the siren-song of AlQaeda and the Taliban.
If the Islamists take over, we'll be facing some truly sisyphean choices.
Right now she is heading into deep water and trying to play politics with the big boys well beyond any real capability she has.
Either Sharif or AQ or the Taliban tried to take her out soon after her arrival back in country. She makes a deal with the devil and she will not live to regret it.
Democracy has been over ridden, not by Musharaff, but by the interference of AQ, the Taliban and other religious extremists.
What is happening now is putting breaks on with the few tools he has available to stop the run away freight train from gaining speed.
No matter what political recommendations result in a coalition of power it is sure money that AQ and the Taliban will throw every monkey wrench into it they can.
They are in fact reaching the point of desperation in a lot of ways and have their back to the wall.
Iraq is rejecting them out of hand, Afghanistan has weaknesses they are trying to exploit and they feel secure in the tribal areas. They can create chaos in the city populations with sympathetic useful idiots but that have to turn the ISI or the military or both to make their plans work.
AQ knows if they don't succeed then they will have to go north to the various whatever stans across the border and Russia won't take very kindly to that and have no problem with using extreme measures like kill everyone and let Allah sort em out.
China keeps poking where they can to keep the pot stirred in both India and Pakistan for their own reasons. And if AQ tries to relocate in their territories China also will bring out the hammer rather than the fly swatter.
Be it Musharaff or those who follow on, if this goes into full brinkmanship, I would not be surprised for the ruling coalition to literally take aim against the tribal areas and declare it a free fire zone especially if it gets pushed on them first. They in fact may have no other choice.
No no no! She doesn't see him as more dangerous to anything (other than to her own ambition). The spoiled child of privilege wants power and by God, she wants it now. All along, she has pushed like an immature brat for everything to be done now because long range plan for the benefit of Pakistan is not something she does well. She is a creature of opportunity.
I wouldn't give a plug nickel for her long-term life expectancy.
I arrived in Hyderabad, India in May and I've been wondering why nobody here seems all that upset or interested in what's going on right next door in Pakistan. The feeling I get is that Indians see this as just another day in the office in Pakistani politics. The "emergency" is no better or worse than things they have seen before.
You write: "(I)t looks more like Bhutto sees Musharraf as more dangerous than the Islamists now, a conclusion Washington will not share."
The possibility you don't mention - and right now the one I think is the strongest - is that Bhutto is and always has been in politics for herself and the empowerment and enrichment of her circle. Islamism, "democracy", whatever. She may not see Musharraf as a "danger" to the Pakistani republic because she may just not even think in those western-oriented terms. The possibility is she just wants power and wealth, and will get it any way she can, with Musharaf or with the islamists. If the average Pakistani sees Bhutto the same way the average Indian sees Indian politicos, that could explain why the Pakistani masses are so far sitting out this crisis. Bhutto in power will do much for her own friends and cronies, but I don't know that the man on the street believes he will be any better off under her than he is under Musharraf. Make no mistake, a "democratic" Pakistan, led by Bhutto, will be just as authoritarian as a Pakistan under "emergency law" is under the General. Maybe even more so.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-bhutt...
A short term military council, then internationally supervised elections in January. Musharaf, reluctantly leaves Pakistan, gets a house near Sandhurst, becomes a professor of military science.
Bhutto is defeated at the polls. Sharif takes over. Then the real work of facing down the very real threats to Pakistan begins.
Just one possible scenario.
As to the lawyers, who are the real trouble-makers, getting the streets to work for them ... THIS, I DOUBT!
Pakistan's a real pickle. For Bhutto? It's just corruption. For Musharraf, however, its a strong love for his country.
Americans get confused. We think if you're not elected, you're not "legit." Which is a far cry from reality. Most countries are operating legitimately. Even in Africa. Where all the tribe has is barefoot tribespeople. And, drums.
Leadership doesn't mean you need to be elected, folks.
Putin's about to prove that, again, BIG TIME.
Hugo Chavez, too, understands that the man who controls a country sitting on top of oil wealth, has to tell his tailor to make the pockets very big. Every day just makes you richer. Less likely to hold elections. And, more likely to distribute bullets.
While in gazoo, the West's "experiement" in elections ... has just about bitten the dust, too.
Musharraf, I will BET! Is praying for the year to pass quickly.
Does he want to see Bush out of office? Yes.
Will Bush look a lot like Jimmy Carter? Yeah. I think so. He'll be leaving. And, around the world there will be countries holding back on celebrations until January 20, 2009.
In the USA? What's the size of the GOP, when you count elected heads?
Wanna make a bet?