In Iowa it is a caucus and you stand in a room and people can see how you vote based on what corner you stand in. Some whites want to show off by showing how progressive they are by voting for Obama.
In New Hampshire its a traditional secret ballot. That means white who told pollsters they were goign to vote for Obama are instead voting for Hillary because no one is watching.
7% of whites will lie and say they are voting for a black when they have no intention of doing so.
newton
· 1 year ago
Thanks for the link. I didn't know about this!
mmebrady
· 1 year ago
agreed!
Bennett
· 1 year ago
Romney has to be hurting. I think he's the first Mass. politician in a long time that didn't win NH in a Presidential race (Dukakis, 1988, Tsongas, 1992, Kerry, 2004 all won if I remember correctly). Now maybe he's got some huge pockets of support in the southern states coming up but somehow I don't see that. I don't see where he wins, outside of Utah but I'm not up on the polling everywhere else.
And Hillary? I'm going to assume that people voted for her despite the tears and not because of them. NH is not a real touchy-feely state.
It is however very white. Did this hurt Obama? Who knows. Since the pundits were so quick to point out that Obama won predominantly white Iowa as some sign that racism in America is finally on the wane, I wonder if that thought will be revised slightly now.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
The cream always rise to the top. Whether the people will recognize it is perhaps another thing.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
The main difference between a Ron Paul presidency and an Obama presidency is that people will pay less tax before the Islamists attack again.
Bennett
· 1 year ago
In defense of Obama, I don't think he's anywhere close to Paul when it comes to wackiness.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
I think Paul's position on Iraq, and terrorism , while delusional, is actually more rational than Obama's. Paul thinks there is no need to fight Islamists-ignore them and they will leave us alone. Obama understands the need to fight them but believes the job is easier if we leave Iraq (thus conceding to al Qaeda a huge victory). The choice is between nuts and more nuts.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
You would have to spend some extended time here in NH to get a feel as to the political dynamics of the population. We are "very white", but that is no fault of ours, as anyone of any race is welcome to move and live here. If they chose not to do so, that should be their fault, not the fault of the state they passed up, or the people living there.
Unfortunately, NH's world-class severe climate scares people of ALL races away. As a result a full quarter of our population is of Canadian descent, as they are used to colder winters than we have. This is Florida to them!
Bennett
· 1 year ago
I spent the first 22 years of my life in NH. My family has been there for generations. And still is.
It's not a melting pot (unless one counts French Canadians as a minority). And while I agree that it's not the kind of place where anyone would be likely to plant a burning cross on some black family's lawn, it's also not necessarily a place where people would feel the need to show how enlightened they are by voting for the black guy. Who's not only black but from Chicago of all places.
Teresa
· 1 year ago
I guess I wasn't the only woman who thought the media was beating up on Hillary just a little too much.
Monkei
· 1 year ago
I read somewhere that either people found the tearing up endearing for Hillary, or privately the democratic voters of New Hampshire told pollsters one thing but found that they could not vote for a black person when it came time to vote ... sort of like the Gantt/Helms scenario in North Carolina!
I would like to think that it is more of the tearing up thing, lieing to pollsters is more of a GOP thing then a Dem thing.
Math_Mage
· 1 year ago
And you base that last comment on...what? Remember, it was the Republican side of NH that turned out as polls predicted, and the Democratic side that surprised all the pollsters. Were the Republicans lying in the voting booth, too?
Teresa
· 1 year ago
It wasn't the "Bradley Effect" of white voters not voting for a black candidate. If that was the case then only white women lie to pollsters because Obama carried white males overwhelmingly.
okonkolo
· 1 year ago
The morons who showed up at her rally with the "Iron My Shirt" sign and chant probably earned her more votes than her husband's complaining did.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
www.newsbusters.org has about 16 stories from the past 24 hours alone showing the mainstream media's "beating up" on her. Hint-they weren't.
Teresa
· 1 year ago
That is just BS Del. Or maybe you can't see it. But female voters could.
Rick
· 1 year ago
rural, "traditional" democratic stronghold precincts reporting so far. No results from urban SE, traditional republican strength
Jim,MtnViewCA,USA
· 1 year ago
"Clinton has a 38-36% advantage ..." NOOOOOOOOO................ I was glancing at the Concord NH newspaper's blog and saw some early returns, Clinton was leading in most of the reported results. Please don't let her out of the box, Obama supporters....
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Concord Monitor is CNN North.
OptimisticMF
· 1 year ago
Speaking of blowhards, what is Tom Delay doing on MSNBC?
JonPrichard
· 1 year ago
The numbers look odd just now. They don't particularly match the polls in the run-up to this night's election. I wonder how accurate the exit polls are. Barone just said on Fox that EXIT POLL numbers were still coming in from outlying areas, this while the polls had just closed. I wonder.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Geography lesson-those outlying areas in New Hampshire in some cases are a long ways off-to drive from border to border here (south to north or vice versa) takes well over 4 hours, and some of the outlying areas still don't have decent communications. Hell, many of us in central New Hampshire don't have decent communications-I am still on dialup.
I live in the central part of NH, 2 miles from an Interstate highway and the major east-west State road in my region, but since I am in a neighborhood where the minimum lot size is 10 acres, my road has never been wired for cable, even though the town has had cable TV since 1979. There simply are not enough houses per road-mile to make it economically possible. Our local phone company Verizon seems to have no interest in putting better phone lines up here either.
To give you an idea of how bad it is, the cable ends 6/10 of a mile to my west, and 1 mile going the other way.
DirecTV has solved the cable teevee problem up here, but their satellite DSL cost is prohibitive.
NCC
· 1 year ago
The Lou Dobbs line is priceless.
If Hillary wins now after Bill's chafing, he can write a new book: To Shame A Nation.
Actually, he already could have written that.
bayam
· 1 year ago
Is Lou Dobbs the worst, most arrogant "news" anchor this side of Keith Olbermann or what? CNN usually produces the fastest updates, but I can't wait to get past the 7 pm break. What a blowhard!
Agreed. Lou is certainly a blow hard but I guess he serves a purpose.
CNN has had the fastest updates both on TV and online. The technology and interactive displays in their newsroom this election is just awesome. The other networks have a lot of catching up to do.
Brian
· 1 year ago
I don't get how two second place finishes and first place in one state is bad for Mitt. He's more consistent than anybody else so far.
NortonPete
· 1 year ago
I was trying to give a positive point to Brad's comment but I could not. So ^ for Brads xcomment because I believe polls are often wrong.
Leeotis
· 1 year ago
When Doug Wilder won the governorship in Virginia several years ago, his actual vote totals ran well below his exit poll numbers. It was not an accident. The exit poll numbers in the lieutenant governor's race and the attorney general's race that year were right on the money. But Wilder ran approximately 4-5% behind where the exit polls said he was going to run. Nobody wanted to really say it, but it appeared as though a lot of people wanted to tell the exit pollers that they had voted for a black man when they, in fact, hadn't. You have to wonder if New Hampshire is now experiencing the same phenomenon.
RBMN
· 1 year ago
I think it might show that NH independents just don't like Mitt Romney. Very understandable. I think it will be true of independents nationally too, if Romney is the nominee. Mitt's just not likeable enough to win over people on the fence--people that disagree with him on 2 or 3 issues. McCain can win those people over. I don't think Mitt can.
newton
· 1 year ago
Remember also that many people who voted in the NH primary moved from MA, away from higher taxes... and Mitt Romney.
LadyLogician
· 1 year ago
Interesting....at 7:11CST CNN calls the race for McCain and at 8:48pm CST Romney has closed the gap to 5 points with 50% of the vote in. The Romney numbers have been slowly trending up (percentage wise) while McCain has been stuck at 37%. Could there be another media upset? It could be fun if there is....
LL
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
That slight bump Romney got was when the results from the tony town of Wolfeboro NH came in. That's where he has his summer estate, right down the shore from such other poor people as the Marriott Hotel family.
LadyLogician
· 1 year ago
Darn - we could only hope to see the media with egg on their faces......
Oh well - maybe next time!
LL
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Be patient!
Monkei
· 1 year ago
why is there 2 people somewhere up north near Canada that have not yet voted 5000 times for Mitt?
Mwalimu_Daudi
· 1 year ago
No - the two people in question are too busy voting for Paul in online polls.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
"8:33 - CNN is now reporting that none of the college towns have reported yet. That may be a big problem for Hillary, whose lead has never gotten more than 3,000 votes ahead of Obama."
NH Geography lesson-here are the "college towns" to look for results:
1. Hanover - Dartmouth College, dating back to the ancient years.
2. Durham-University of NH
3. Keene-Keene State Univerosty
4. Plymouth-Plymouth State Univeristy
5. New London-Colby College
6. Southern New Hampshire-a batch of assorted outfits like Franklin Pierce College, St. Anselm, Daniel Webster College (an aviation school), the southern branch of UNH, etc.
RBMN
· 1 year ago
Clinton wins the poor, the old, and single women, big time--in other words, the Democratic base. I think she'll win by 2%.
newton
· 1 year ago
"Clinton wins the poor, the old, and single women, big time"
All dependents of the state, in one way or another. It is to be expected.
Henning
· 1 year ago
have also a look at www.dailypolitics.eu for interetsing live comments on the primary. We take a European and Asian angle on this tonight...
Boy the polls weren't just wrong in NH they were WRONG, WRONG, WRONG! With apologies to Robert Byrd (sort of).
okonkolo
· 1 year ago
Fred Thompson could not have done worse. Will this finish him?
Monkei
· 1 year ago
He needs to take go home. 1 percent? Ron Paul beat him by almost 9 percent! If that is not saying it's time to go Fred than do we really want someone with that kind of blind knowledge running the country? Fred Thompson, the next Ronald Reagan, the next big name in conservative politicians ... done before he even started!
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Here in New Hampshire, I had never even seen a Fred Thompson sign until today. That's pretty laid-back campaigning. He never even tried here, as opposed to McCain, who between his NH 200 campaign and these one has probably shaken every hand and kissed every baby in the entire state. Twice!
Math_Mage
· 1 year ago
If 7 percent is "almost 9 percent", and if Thompson had done any campaigning AT ALL in New Hampshire rather than declaring "On to South Carolina!", Monkei would be smack on target.
ScottM
· 1 year ago
This is depressing.
After years of saying I wouldn't vote for McCain (and weeks of saying I wouldn't vote for Huckabee), I decided today that if the Democrats nominate Hillary, I'll vote for whomever the Republicans put up.
Bill's recent performance in particular has reminded me how awful the Clintons are. Anything would be better than having them back at the center of our national political life, even electing such an arrogant authoritarian statist as McCain.
chsw
· 1 year ago
Would have posted earlier but I just got home.
Having worked in the past for Dem machines in both MD and Chicago, I was immediately suspicious when I began to hear reports about polling stations running out of ballots. Perhaps the ballots had been already filled in. Or, perhaps some people are taking advantage of NH's permissive motor-voter law which has minimal requirements. Perhaps the FBI's voter fraud unit should send some snoops to NH.
chsw
Christoph
· 1 year ago
Wow, Obama's giving a magnificent speech and sounds so much like Martin Luther King.
You may not remember his speaches; heck, I don't. My dad told me how moving they were.
But I've heard them.
And that's what Obama sounds like... this is his concession speech for this part of the candidate selection process. He may not win now... but one day, he'll be powerful if he continues this.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
I heard King. He was a man of substance and inspirational . Obama imitates the same clipped style but that's where the comparison ends. Listen to his words. He is vacuous.
He wants to end (not win) the war in iraq - where al Qaeda is taking a shit- kicking (from us and Iraqis). In the next sentence he says he wants to fight al Qaeda, as if he doesn't understand that if they are perceived as beating us in Iraq their ranks and coffers will swell.
The appeal is to people who have only superficial, if any, knowledge of Iraq . Given your previous posts Christoph I assume you are being sarcastic. Your post is too suble .
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Newsbusters has some interesting stories of how the pro-Clinton MSM totally went in the tank for her the past 36 or so hours. I'm sure they gave her at least 2 or 3 points.
Perhaps the people in New Hampshire realized that Obama is too inexperienced for prime time and voted for Hillary. Unfortunately, Hillary does not have a lot of actual experience either and, in my opinion, is not qualified for the job.
Monkei
· 1 year ago
Sometimes experience is not a requirement to be president ... and sometimes having plenty of experience does not make a good president. I think it is more about surrounding yourself with good people and being a leader, see Reagan. And not being an idiot and surrounding yourself with other idiots ... see Bush.
bikerken
· 1 year ago
I’m watching this empty suit blowhard YoMama giving his speech. He says he will end the tyranny of war. I wonder what he means by that? The tyranny is on the side of terrorism I though and the only way to defeat that is to win. Or is he saying that we are the tyrants? It doesn’t make sense.
Now he is taking a high dive into the buttcrack of our illegal aliens by chanting “Yes we can!” Can what? Of course that is the English translation of “Si se Puede” which is what the illegals were chanting during their marches. He is telegraphing to the illegal aliens in this country that he is their guy.
This guy has a very questionable political history of radicalism that makes me think he is probably a Manchurian candidate. Read the Alinsky story over at American Thinker. There are a whole lot of facts there I've seen many other places that just don't add up.
On another note, I have to say this, whenever I hear, “we ran out of ballots, we have to get more” all over the state, that tells me that there is more than likely fraud in the air. In a state with such a low population, physically situated next to other places where an influx of phoney voting could come from, I would bet there were some shenanigans going on here somewhere. Democrats are famous for that stuff.
My last observation is this, regardless of the broom rider winning or not, it is fun to see the press backpeddling and stuttering because they were wrong. We need to see a lot more of this as they try to convince the American people who we are allowed to vote for.
Christoph
· 1 year ago
Clinton's best speech ever. Not a fan of her, but it was good.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
What are you smoking tonight? McCain , who I don't support. gave a marvellous speech. Clinton gave a journeyman performance. She won't be out of bed before noon tomorrrow.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Just curious-earlier today some of the cities and towns here in NH said that they were "running out of ballots" in various polling places.
Doesn't that sound a little suspicious? All they would need is 5 or 6 thousand fresh ballots to change the result from one Democrat to another...
HNAV
· 1 year ago
Hats off to the McCain crowd...
NH has sunk in my book.
Saving Hillary's political ambition?
Something tells me, Democrats have made a huge mistake...
I am studying the union vote, and that slant has helped, so did crying...
But John McCain is something expected, however, in such a very liberal state, with the mass independent vote, it really seems to be another loss for Conservatives.
John McCain actually said Social Security was 'fixed' in the 80's, so he will be a great choice to fix it again.
He pushed Global Warming rhetoric...
The GOP is in huge trouble with an aged Senator like this...
NH has empowered Senators tonight, who oppose tax cuts...
Romney can attract votes from all over, and is in my book, without a doubt, the best opportunity for Conservative interests and sound experienced Management.
But I have seen the best not given a chance, and I expect we will be poorly served with Huckabee or McCain.
lakelevel
· 1 year ago
Dang. Yesterday I posted that Hillary would make a huge comeback. This afternoon I was at the Iowa Electronics markets site trying to buy Hillary for nomination for 0.19 when I had to leave to pick someone up. The Hillary for nomination shares have got to be back up to 0.70 by tommorow. I could have made 350% overnight. On the bright side, I spent the evening with someone who is very special and happy and who I love very much. Yeah I came out ahead.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
Stop bragging aboutt your sex life.
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
OK, Grasshoppers, Lesson Time
Nearly all of the polls said one Democrat would win New Hampshire. Nearly all of the polls were wrong. Which proves that polls can be wrong.
They were wrong about Obama winning New Hampshire.
But they could also be wrong about the percentage of Americans against the war in Iraq, Bush's job approval. etc.
And (horrors) they even could have been manipulated to give Bill Clinton higher job approval numbers than he really had. But I'm sure Clinton News Network (CNN) wouldn't stoop that low. After all, they were too busy protecting Saddam Hussein...
Monkei
· 1 year ago
yeah, they could be wrong about a lot of things ... but I find it funny that you think they might be wrong about the things that help out your guy and hurt the guys you don't like.
I am glad this whole money making tourist thing for NH is over. NH can now go back to what they do and are known for the other 3 years and 9 months between elections ... nothing.
Monkei
· 1 year ago
but we can take it a step further. Rasmussen always seems to be an outlyer on Bush approval ratings ... they consistently have him in the high 30s and almost ready to break into the 40s. Yet this same firm had Obama to win in NH by 7 on their final NH poll. So Bush's approval ratings could be much lower.
I think your answer to Bush and the effect of the war were answered loudly during the previous election. There is no reason to doubt how Americans feel about Bush and this war.
Alex
· 1 year ago
Did anyone (other than Anderson Cooper) notice the fact that Romney started his Michigan victory speech less than a minute into McCain's concession speech? That sort of thing does not happen by accident. If that's how petty the man acts as a lowly candidate, I shudder to think what he would do as President. Consider the dichotomy: a preening pseudo-conservative populist with a ten-thousand dollar smile and perfect children who would stab you in the back for ten minutes of television, versus a gruff, temperamental, and sometimes inappropriate old soldier who would stay a few more years in a POW camp to avoid getting sent home before you because that would be accepting special treatment from the enemy.
I don't think this is a particularly difficult choice.
Monkei
· 1 year ago
St Rudy of 911 less than 500 votes ahead of Ron Paul?
Del_Dolemonte
· 1 year ago
Rudy never included New Hampshire in his grand plan from the beginning, even though he did spend a respectable amount of time here.. He's concentrating on the bigger states.
Monkei
· 1 year ago
and you don't find it suprising that if you add Rudy and Fred together they still don't get 10 percent of the vote?
Mwalimu_Daudi
· 1 year ago
...and you don't find it surprising that the anti-war wacko Paul lost - again? Fifth place - behind a no-show? What happened to all of those millions of dollars Paul raised, and all of those on-line polls he won?
Monkei
· 1 year ago
that's a good question ... I have long contended that these people running for president are all on a hands-out program and continue to run as long as people put money in their hands when they hold them out. Ron Paul is one. Fred Thompson is proving to be another on the handout trail.
TerryGain
· 1 year ago
A tue patriot is only 500 votes ahead of a racist surrender monkey. Why are you celebrating this?
Math_Mage
· 1 year ago
If an irrelevant candidate only does slightly worse than the candidate that didn't show, does anyone care?
Christoph
· 1 year ago
Clinton just started speaking and she looks emotional. Genuinely this time, I believe.
All Comments
In Iowa it is a caucus and you stand in a room and people can see how you vote based on what corner you stand in. Some whites want to show off by showing how progressive they are by voting for Obama.
In New Hampshire its a traditional secret ballot. That means white who told pollsters they were goign to vote for Obama are instead voting for Hillary because no one is watching.
7% of whites will lie and say they are voting for a black when they have no intention of doing so.
And Hillary? I'm going to assume that people voted for her despite the tears and not because of them. NH is not a real touchy-feely state.
It is however very white. Did this hurt Obama? Who knows. Since the pundits were so quick to point out that Obama won predominantly white Iowa as some sign that racism in America is finally on the wane, I wonder if that thought will be revised slightly now.
Unfortunately, NH's world-class severe climate scares people of ALL races away. As a result a full quarter of our population is of Canadian descent, as they are used to colder winters than we have. This is Florida to them!
It's not a melting pot (unless one counts French Canadians as a minority). And while I agree that it's not the kind of place where anyone would be likely to plant a burning cross on some black family's lawn, it's also not necessarily a place where people would feel the need to show how enlightened they are by voting for the black guy. Who's not only black but from Chicago of all places.
I would like to think that it is more of the tearing up thing, lieing to pollsters is more of a GOP thing then a Dem thing.
the case then only white women lie to pollsters because Obama carried white males
overwhelmingly.
NOOOOOOOOO................
I was glancing at the Concord NH newspaper's blog and saw some early returns, Clinton was leading in most of the reported results. Please don't let her out of the box, Obama supporters....
I live in the central part of NH, 2 miles from an Interstate highway and the major east-west State road in my region, but since I am in a neighborhood where the minimum lot size is 10 acres, my road has never been wired for cable, even though the town has had cable TV since 1979. There simply are not enough houses per road-mile to make it economically possible. Our local phone company Verizon seems to have no interest in putting better phone lines up here either.
To give you an idea of how bad it is, the cable ends 6/10 of a mile to my west, and 1 mile going the other way.
DirecTV has solved the cable teevee problem up here, but their satellite DSL cost is prohibitive.
If Hillary wins now after Bill's chafing, he can write a new book: To Shame A Nation.
Actually, he already could have written that.
Agreed. Lou is certainly a blow hard but I guess he serves a purpose.
CNN has had the fastest updates both on TV and online. The technology and interactive displays in their newsroom this election is just awesome. The other networks have a lot of catching up to do.
So ^ for Brads xcomment because I believe polls are often wrong.
LL
Oh well - maybe next time!
LL
NH Geography lesson-here are the "college towns" to look for results:
1. Hanover - Dartmouth College, dating back to the ancient years.
2. Durham-University of NH
3. Keene-Keene State Univerosty
4. Plymouth-Plymouth State Univeristy
5. New London-Colby College
6. Southern New Hampshire-a batch of assorted outfits like Franklin Pierce College, St. Anselm, Daniel Webster College (an aviation school), the southern branch of UNH, etc.
All dependents of the state, in one way or another. It is to be expected.
After years of saying I wouldn't vote for McCain (and weeks of saying I wouldn't vote for Huckabee), I decided today that if the Democrats nominate Hillary, I'll vote for whomever the Republicans put up.
Bill's recent performance in particular has reminded me how awful the Clintons are. Anything would be better than having them back at the center of our national political life, even electing such an arrogant authoritarian statist as McCain.
Having worked in the past for Dem machines in both MD and Chicago, I was immediately suspicious when I began to hear reports about polling stations running out of ballots. Perhaps the ballots had been already filled in. Or, perhaps some people are taking advantage of NH's permissive motor-voter law which has minimal requirements. Perhaps the FBI's voter fraud unit should send some snoops to NH.
chsw
You may not remember his speaches; heck, I don't. My dad told me how moving they were.
But I've heard them.
And that's what Obama sounds like... this is his concession speech for this part of the candidate selection process. He may not win now... but one day, he'll be powerful if he continues this.
He wants to end (not win) the war in iraq - where al Qaeda is taking a shit- kicking (from us and Iraqis). In the next sentence he says he wants to fight al Qaeda, as if he doesn't understand that if they are perceived as beating us in Iraq their ranks and coffers will swell.
The appeal is to people who have only superficial, if any, knowledge of Iraq . Given your previous posts Christoph I assume you are being sarcastic. Your post is too suble .
www.newsbusters.org
Now he is taking a high dive into the buttcrack of our illegal aliens by chanting “Yes we can!” Can what? Of course that is the English translation of “Si se Puede” which is what the illegals were chanting during their marches. He is telegraphing to the illegal aliens in this country that he is their guy.
This guy has a very questionable political history of radicalism that makes me think he is probably a Manchurian candidate. Read the Alinsky story over at American Thinker. There are a whole lot of facts there I've seen many other places that just don't add up.
On another note, I have to say this, whenever I hear, “we ran out of ballots, we have to get more” all over the state, that tells me that there is more than likely fraud in the air. In a state with such a low population, physically situated next to other places where an influx of phoney voting could come from, I would bet there were some shenanigans going on here somewhere. Democrats are famous for that stuff.
My last observation is this, regardless of the broom rider winning or not, it is fun to see the press backpeddling and stuttering because they were wrong. We need to see a lot more of this as they try to convince the American people who we are allowed to vote for.
Doesn't that sound a little suspicious? All they would need is 5 or 6 thousand fresh ballots to change the result from one Democrat to another...
NH has sunk in my book.
Saving Hillary's political ambition?
Something tells me, Democrats have made a huge mistake...
I am studying the union vote, and that slant has helped, so did crying...
But John McCain is something expected, however, in such a very liberal state, with the mass independent vote, it really seems to be another loss for Conservatives.
John McCain actually said Social Security was 'fixed' in the 80's, so he will be a great choice to fix it again.
He pushed Global Warming rhetoric...
The GOP is in huge trouble with an aged Senator like this...
NH has empowered Senators tonight, who oppose tax cuts...
Romney can attract votes from all over, and is in my book, without a doubt, the best opportunity for Conservative interests and sound experienced Management.
But I have seen the best not given a chance, and I expect we will be poorly served with Huckabee or McCain.
Nearly all of the polls said one Democrat would win New Hampshire. Nearly all of the polls were wrong. Which proves that polls can be wrong.
They were wrong about Obama winning New Hampshire.
But they could also be wrong about the percentage of Americans against the war in Iraq, Bush's job approval. etc.
And (horrors) they even could have been manipulated to give Bill Clinton higher job approval numbers than he really had. But I'm sure Clinton News Network (CNN) wouldn't stoop that low. After all, they were too busy protecting Saddam Hussein...
I am glad this whole money making tourist thing for NH is over. NH can now go back to what they do and are known for the other 3 years and 9 months between elections ... nothing.
I think your answer to Bush and the effect of the war were answered loudly during the previous election. There is no reason to doubt how Americans feel about Bush and this war.
I don't think this is a particularly difficult choice.